International steel prices are currently in the doldrums as a whole, and China's steel exports are losing their advantages.
in October, the daily output of domestic crude steel once again approached the 2million ton mark. The market was worried and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, but the steel mills were full of production, there was not much difficulty in organizing orders under contracts, and the early production reduction plans of some steel mills were shelved. In addition to the reason for the increase in orders after the rebound in steel prices, it is also related to the busy production and export of steel mills. Whether the export orders of steel mills can be continued in large numbers, it may be difficult to have a large number of orders after international procurement "bottoming out" in China, and it will be difficult to continue a large number of export orders of Chinese steel
at present, most of the export orders are received in the early stage. In October, the order proportion of some hot coil mills decreased significantly, but the output did not decrease much, mainly because they are busy with the early export orders at present. According to statistics, the total amount of hot coil plan of 40 major steel mills in China in October was 9.7195 million tons, with a month on month decrease of 32500 tons and a month on month decrease of 0.33%. In terms of export, the planned export volume of 17 major hot coil steel mills in October was 508000 tons, with a month on month decrease of only 3000 tons. At present, the FOB export offer is US $560, and the export quotation is increased by US $per ton compared with last month. The general cycle of export orders is twoorthree months. At present, most orders received are early orders. It is also worth noting that most international purchase orders will greatly increase the share of exports to emerging countries when China's steel prices are at the lowest. Even at the end of August and early September, to a certain extent, international buyers have successfully "bottomed out". International steel prices are currently in the doldrums as a whole. Since September, although China's domestic steel market has rebounded for a long time, international steel prices have fallen all the way, including the U.S. market, which was outstanding in the early stage, and the relatively strong European market. So far, the price of hot rolls in Europe and the United States has fallen by $per ton. The Southeast Asian market is still depressed, and China's export quotation has risen by $per ton. However, according to market feedback, China's export orders have shrunk significantly. So far, taking hot coil as an example, the price of hot coil in Europe has fallen by $12/ton and that in the United States has fallen by $33/ton. Moreover, buyers in the local market are not active, and the actual transaction is relatively weak. The prices of imports from Southeast Asia, exports from Japan and imports from the Middle East are all hovering around us dollars per ton, with little fluctuation in prices. It is worth noting that with the rising price of steel in China, the price of hot coil exported from China has increased significantly. At present, the export price of hot coil from China is 560 US dollars/ton (FOB). Since October, the space for research and development of new materials with international steel prices has become narrower and narrower, and they are still reorganized from benchmarking with international standards to participating in the formulation of international standards. American sheet metal manufacturers continued to rise. Although market transactions did not actually improve, American steel mills remained motivated to rise. At present, the ex factory price of hot coil in the United States varies from USD/short ton to USD/short ton for cold rolling, which is higher than that of last week by USD/ton, but the actual transaction in the market has not improved. The quotation of European steel mills was temporarily stable, but the actual transaction price in the market continued to decline. At present, the price of hot coil in northern Europe is reduced to 490 euros/ton, that in southern Europe is EUR/ton, and the price of cold rolling is 575 euros/ton and EUR/ton respectively; The price of galvanizing was 595 euros/ton, euro/ton, a decrease of euro/ton. The Asian sheet metal market is still depressed. At present, China's domestic steel market is generally stable, but the shipment is generally poor. However, the export quotation has been raised in the early stage. Now the export quotation of hot coil shipped in December is 560 US dollars/ton, and the export quotation of cold rolling is US dollars/ton (FOB) parallel before stretching;, Slightly higher than the previous period, but the export volume has not increased significantly, and the actual transaction is weak. The hot rolling price negotiation between South Korea and Japan ended in the third quarter, and its average price in the third quarter was $600/ton, down from the second quarter; The Indian market is sluggish, some steel mills have reduced production, and exports are also weak. At present, galvanized steel is exported to the United States at USD/ton, and exported to Africa at USD 900/ton, all of which are CFR. China's steel export gradually lost its advantage. At the end of August and the beginning of September, the international purchase price can be described as a successful "bottom reading" of Chinese steel, and a large number of hot coil export quotations were mostly $510/ton (FOB); However, in the current situation of low international steel prices, rising export prices in China and close prices in surrounding areas, it is reported that export orders have significantly weakened after November, and the export order prices of some manufacturers have been reduced, and the export profits are extremely poor. In the case of bearing the export risks, some steel mills actively switch to domestic sales. In general, it is expected that a large number of export orders in China will be difficult to continue under the circumstances of falling international steel prices, reduced order demand and low export profits in China. Source: Chinese steel
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